THINK TWICE, STAN

America’s New Doctrine: A Counterrevolution in Slow Motion On December 5, while most of the world slept, the White House quietly posted a new National Security Strategy. The document arrived without ceremony, but its contents amount to a political detonation. It outlines a full reversal of the post-Cold War worldview, a kind of counterrevolution in policy, entirely in the spirit of Trump’s long promised campaign against globalism. A revolution against the revolution. The text avoids dramatic vocabulary, but its implications do not. This is pure, distilled Trumpism. Nothing fundamentally new, but everything systematized into a single programmatic statement that is intended to guide Washington for the next decade. If Trump succeeds now and Vance later, this will be the ideological backbone of American statecraft for years. The strategy opens by declaring that the United States is finished playing global hegemon. Every major pillar of American policy since 1991 is characterized as a...

 No "Deal” Over recent weeks major European media have energetically circulated assorted “leaks” about supposed peace plans for Ukraine. Their main refrain has been predictable enough: Moscow’s demands are categorically unacceptable. Every original Russian position – on territory, NATO, and the limitations on Ukrainian armed forces – was once again denounced as a “Ukrainian capitulation.” More curious is that the plan attributed to the White House, based on agreements supposedly reached during the Putin–Trump meeting in Anchorage, is now also described by Europeans as unacceptable. Only a certain European document, allegedly coordinated with Kiev, is presented as viable – an ultimatum to Moscow placing Russia in the position of the defeated. It would be difficult to interpret these leaks as anything other than a new attempt to pressure Moscow into what in Russian slang is called a dogovorniak – not a serious, equitable peace agreement, but a small, empty, and humiliating do...

Of Cynicism and Realism To end the war in Ukraine one needs… It may sound cynical to suggest that Trump is once again giving Moscow time to narrow Kiev’s room for maneuver, both literally and figuratively. And yet, perhaps it is not cynical at all. No agreement on ending the conflict emerged from the five-hour meeting in the Kremlin, which is unsurprising. Russia never hid the fact that it would not concede on its core demand: Ukrainian forces must withdraw from the remaining sections of Donbass still under their control. Kiev, for its part, continues to insist that a voluntary withdrawal is off the table. And most likely the U.S. administration cannot compel Ukraine to do so now, or ever. Which leaves the second option Moscow already outlined: the territory will be cleared by force. Trump, anticipating this, publicly noted that he would not set deadlines for the Kremlin and could not predict whether a breakthrough would occur. This, incidentally, differs from his usual rhetoric in...

  A Labyrinth With Only One Exit The behavior of the four central actors in the diplomatic process    -   Ukraine, Europe, the United States, and Russia    -   has become so predictable that the negotiations now resemble a labyrinth with only one exit. Every side insists it is maneuvering, yet every corridor bends toward the same outcome. Diplomacy continues largely because abandoning it would look improper; the substance has already been decided. The much-anticipated talks between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump’s envoys    -   Special Representative Stephen Witkoff and presidential Special Son-in-Law Jared Kushner    -   produced nothing that could be described as news. Putin’s adviser Yuri Ushakov merely noted that the conversation “went well.” The follow-up meeting those same envoys were expected to hold with Zelensky never happened at all, despite Zelensky’s efforts to intercept them in Europe. Disappointment and ...

  The best way to win a war Zelensky announces that Ukraine will “change its defense plan.” He did not say why, or to what. After listening to Defense Minister Shmygal’s report, he solemnly declared: “It is time to amend the key defense documents of Ukraine, in particular the plan of defense of our state. The course of hostilities has demonstrated what should become our updated priorities.” Updated priorities. He did not specify which ones. As usual, the Commander-in-Chief offered no clarification, nor is it likely he fully grasped the meaning of the sounds he produced. By now, most observers have adjusted their expectations accordingly.

 Trump After Dark Denmark no longer sleeps. The country lives on Trump Alert. Midnight in Copenhagen now simply means waiting for the next remark from Washington, while the Night Shift stands watch, monitoring the nightly Greenland anxiety stream in real time. Denmark, it seems, has quietly developed a nocturnal early-warning system. Not against Russia, or even against migration, but against the nightly remarks of the former President of the United States concerning Greenland. In Copenhagen, they now have what is informally called a “night watch.” Its sole duty: to monitor whatever Trump may say or do overnight about buying, pressuring, partitioning, or otherwise liberating Greenland from Danish custody. A team reports for duty at 17:00 and watches through the night. By 07:00, they prepare a concise briefing on everything Trump has uttered or implied regarding Danish territory. The memo is sent to key ministries and bureaucracies before officials have even had their first coffee. A...

Shuffling Note the timing: the search of Yermak’s premises began on the eve of a visit to Kiev by General Driscoll, Donald Trump’s representative. According to the most circulated version, Driscoll’s mission is to pressure the Ukrainian authorities into accepting concessions under Trump’s peace plan  - including, allegedly, the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Donbass. And just yesterday, Yermak solemnly declared that “as long as Zelensky is president”, Ukraine will not make any territorial concessions. Judging by the mood in Washington, this line appears to have been communicated to the Americans some time earlier. Hence, within political circles, today’s raids are widely interpreted as a signal from Washington  - delivered through the hands of NABU  - to remind Zelensky that the situation is serious and that his position on the peace plan is due for adjustment. Another explanation ties the case to a broader agenda long pursued by the emerging “anti-Zelensky coalition...