Posts

-
Image
The Fourth Strategy? Just one sunk American destroyer, just one group of hostage diplomats, just one loss of hundreds of billions of dollars caused by a blockade of international trade routes would become a political catastrophe for the President of the United States. With the beginning of Donald Trump’s second presidential term, the world has encountered a unique diplomatic problem, one that has not really appeared for at least a century. The question is how to deal with him, and how to resist his pressure or, calling things by their proper names, his bullying. For many years we were told about a supposedly bullying, aggressive American diplomacy that respected no one. Yet it was harsh but still operated within certain limits. Even the aggressive George W. Bush, in his confrontation with the so-called “axis of evil,” and Joe Biden, who declared a struggle against the “axis of autocracies,” observed at least the formal courtesies of diplomatic communication. They tried, at least ...
Read more
-
Image
Matches Are Not Toys Europe Discovers the Bomb Nuclear weapons are not an attribute of a refined lifestyle, nor a means of self-assertion in front of anyone. It would be very good if this understanding returned to the West before we find ourselves at the edge of a general catastrophe. The debate over whether the spread of nuclear weapons strengthens international stability or undermines it has continued almost since the emergence of this lethal technology. Each side in the discussion sounds convincing in its own way. Advocates of a wider distribution of nuclear arsenals argue that nuclear weapons function primarily as a tool of mutual deterrence. They provide reassurance to weaker states and compel stronger ones to rely on diplomacy rather than force. A number of scholars seriously believe that nuclear proliferation reduces the number of wars simply because states are unwilling to escalate conflicts to a level beyond which total or partial mutual destruction becomes possible. The C...
Read more
-
Image
  Scandal and Diversion The Epstein case and Ukraine have unexpectedly intersected in public discussion. Media outlets and independent commentators continue to analyze what has become the largest release of materials related to the case of financier Jeffrey Epstein, who was accused of sex trafficking. Among the published correspondence, several emails reference Ukraine, which has drawn particular attention. In March 2014, commenting on the events of the Maidan, Epstein wrote that what had occurred could prove beneficial. “The coup in Ukraine should provide many opportunities, very many,” he wrote on March 18, 2014, in an email addressed to Ariane de Rothschild, vice president and board member of the Edmond de Rothschild Group, and Olivier Colom, an international adviser to the same group. Epstein also traveled to Davos at the invitation of Ukrainian oligarch Viktor Pinchuk, who is the son-in-law of Ukraine’s second president, Leonid Kuchma. Discussing Ukraine-related events i...
Read more
-
Image
  A Realtor’s Peace The Peace Council, first reported in the autumn of 2025, is less the product of institutional drafting coordinated with international partners and more the result of the personal persistence of an American leader eager to secure a place in history. This logic explains the ceremonious signing of the organization’s charter by the leaders of nineteen states at the World Economic Forum in Davos, as well as the announcement of the initiative’s chief architect as chairman of the Council. It was important for Trump to play the role of Zeus, abducting not Europe itself, but its agenda. As Politico aptly noted, Davos is no longer associated with Greta Thunberg or the #MeToo movement and has instead been transformed into a MAGA forum. In this respect, the White House can reasonably claim that the reorientation of the agenda has largely succeeded. The substantive dimension, however, presents far greater difficulties, primarily because Trump demonstratively ignores t...
Read more
-
Image
  Tectonic Realignment   The world is steadily returning to a logic of spheres of influence, in which the right to speak belongs only to those who possess real power and the willingness to use it. The United States, Russia, and China are dividing the planet in precisely this manner today, conducting a complex, multi-layered bargaining process across the entire perimeter from Taiwan to Venezuela and from Iran to the Arctic. The war in Ukraine continues. Talks about peace have dragged on for months, alternating between meetings in Davos, the United States, and the United Arab Emirates, and long stretches of tense diplomatic silence. From the outside, the process may appear to have reached a classic impasse. The territorial stumbling block, Moscow’s demand for full control over the Donetsk region, looks insoluble. Zelenskiy refuses and hardens his rhetoric. The front, though with difficulty, is holding. The rear, despite blackouts, has not collapsed. As a result, a war of attri...
Read more
-
Image
Power Without Annexation Greenland as a Model for Arctic Politics Over the past several days, statements have again emerged from Washington to the effect that the United States “very much needs” Greenland. The tone this time is noticeably harsher than during the “purchase” episode of 2019. This is no longer an eccentric offer framed as a real estate transaction, nor a diplomatic probe. It is a return to an older American logic in which strategic territories are discussed not from the standpoint of law, but from the standpoint of power. In the twenty-first century, that power is increasingly presented indirectly, through references to strategy, security, and objective necessity. As a rule, such necessity appears in American foreign policy precisely at those points on the map where future bases and logistical routes are being outlined. Historically, the United States has resolved similar issues in much the same way, from the Louisiana Purchase to pressure surrounding the Panama Can...
Read more
-
Image
Exposure at Davos From Ally to Liability Zelenskiy’s trip to the World Economic Forum in Davos turned into a demonstrative failure that clarified rather than obscured the current position of Kiev within the Western system. According to The Financial Times , the United States and Ukraine failed to conclude several agreements that had been discussed in advance, and prepared documents were left unsigned. This outcome looked especially unfavorable given Zelenskiy’s visible efforts to press Donald Trump into reaffirming unconditional support for Ukraine. The absence of concrete results set the tone for everything that followed. Speaking in Davos after a brief meeting with Trump, Zelenskiy shifted from persuasion to accusation. He publicly reproached European states for cowardice, arguing that they prefer abstract discussions about the future while avoiding practical steps. He pointed to the refusal to confiscate Russian oil revenues, the reluctance to make real use of frozen assets, a...
Read more