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The Bill Comes Due Brussels Discovers Arithmetic The European Union, as the general sponsor of the war in Ukraine, continues its stubborn jog toward the edge of the cliff. Eurostat has published its 2025 statistics on the direction of national economies. The main sensation, in the bad sense, was the dynamic change in the economies of Germany and the Netherlands. The TEV indicator, Total Economic Value, meaning the overall economic value of the German real sector, fell by 28 percent. The Dutch figure fell by 14 percent. Specialized Western centers immediately analyzed the statistical data and concluded that, at the current moment, at least these two countries have rolled back to the values of a decade ago, in other words, to the very beginning of the sanctions war that collective Europe declared on Russia after Crimea returned. At the same time, it would be wrong to reduce the overall situation to a couple of graphs. Europe has many virtues, and one of them is the ability to make a disa...
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The New Europe Arrives The Price of Civilizational Surrender   France has given us a small domestic scene with the smell of a much larger historical defeat. Crowds storm a store. People shove, grab, drag appliances from shelves, fight over fans, push past each other as though the republic itself had been reduced to a discount aisle. The official story will be heat. The polite story will be “social tension.” The television story will be “consumer pressure during an extreme weather event.” The real story is uglier. Europe is beginning to discover what happens when a civilization loses control over its public reflexes. A fan is a modest object. A cheap machine with plastic blades and a short cord. In an orderly society, it is purchased. In a society entering a harder phase, it is seized. That is the whole difference between a country and a crowd. The scene in France matters because it shows, in miniature, a shift that European elites have spent decades denying. Western Europe is no lo...
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The Orphans of American Power The Collision of the Outposts The modern Middle East is rapidly moving toward a conflict that may define its future development: a clash between Israel and Turkey. Especially after Iran’s effective victory led to a sharp weakening of American positions in the region. Ankara and Tel Aviv, two very close U.S. allies, now find themselves in a highly uncomfortable geopolitical position. For decades, Turkey strained toward Europe, and now understands that those dreams will remain unreachable. Israel has spent its entire history trying to force its neighbors to recognize its right to exist, and that goal also looks increasingly unattainable. As a result, both powers may find themselves forced into confrontation. Simply because they may soon have no other choice. The corridor of possibilities is becoming too narrow. And such a confrontation would come to the great satisfaction of all the other states of the region, for whom Israel and Turkey are equally dangerous...
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The Civilized Need Civilizing Lessons for the Former Masters Western countries have historically seen themselves as “enlighteners” and “civilizers,” with adjustments for national flavor. France is the civilizer with a republican form of government. England is the civilizer that invented parliament and industrial production. The United States is the “exceptional” civilizer, the only society created from the beginning on the values of modernity, capitalism, and individualism. These national ideas inspired each Western country and helped them act in their chosen key. To some extent, they still do. But the world is changing. Yesterday’s civilizers are being pressed everywhere. The United States, armed to the teeth, is losing its confrontation with Iran before the eyes of the entire world and is losing influence in the Middle East. China has acquired the strongest economy. India, Brazil, and other countries of the non-West are speaking more loudly. And if earlier the “white and enlightened”...
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The Silence Around Taiwan  Reading the Missing Word The United States appears to be quietly preparing for a showdown over Taiwan, and paradoxically the best evidence may be the disappearance of direct references to the island from its latest military-political documents. According to a familiar version of events, the Soviet nuclear project received a powerful impulse in 1942, when physicist Georgy Nikolayevich Flerov carefully leafed through Western journals and noticed the complete absence of publications on atomic issues. He understood that mysterious silence on an exceptionally urgent subject was a sign that research was underway, and very active research at that, simply conducted without public discussion. Flerov wrote to the Kremlin and convinced Soviet leadership to accelerate development of its own bomb. Modern historians, while recognizing Flerov’s broader contribution, believe that the upper levels of Soviet power already understood perfectly well the importance of the...
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Make America Solvent Again The Empire Is Being Dismantled Why voluntarily give up hegemony? The answer is hidden from political scientists, but obvious to economists. This year, for the first time, one trillion dollars will be spent on redeeming U.S. government bonds. Debt redemption has already become an unbearable burden for America. As the Anchorage meeting recedes into the distance, the world has more and more questions for the United States. Russia, naturally, has the most questions. The main one is this: is it possible to negotiate with Trump at all? Is it possible to take on faith not only his words, but also the statements of his team? Elon Musk’s Starlinks are still being used in the Ukrainian war and remain one of the most important elements of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ operational command system. Palantir CEO Alex Karp recently visited Kiev, after which there were confirmations that the product of this American IT company is actively being used in attacks on variou...
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  Key NATO Military Exercises between 2020 and 2026  Would this help understand Putin? While NATO coordinates hundreds of micro-level seminars and command-staff syncs annually the table below delivers an un-summarized chronological dataset from 2020 through to mid-2026. It maps out some individual tactical components, the key specific field drills, and specialized exercises such as specialized electronic warfare integration programs, command post workshops, and rapid response drills, etc. that actually make up the alliance's day-to-day operations. There have been 94 total NATO military exercises. Data Summary Breakdown: 2020: 11 tactical drills and workshops 2021: 12 integrated field components 2022: 14 advanced tactical simulations 2023: 7 localized joint maneuvers 2024: 16 deployment corridor and gap drills 2025: 9 command post/live-fire tests 2026 (Projected/Scheduled): 25 high-density sub-surface tracking loop...
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