ANALYTICAL EVALUATION REPORT SUBJECT: RAND - “The AGI Rideout Strategy for Reducing Strategic Risk and Promoting Stability in the Transition to Artificial General Intelligence” DATE: 29 April 2026 ASSESSMENT TYPE: Structural, Strategic, and Analytical Evaluation ASSESSMENT The RAND paper “TheAGI Rideout Strategy” is a serious, intellectually disciplined, and strategically valuable contribution to emerging AGI-national-security discourse. Its core contribution lies in challenging simplistic “winner-take-all” assumptions surrounding the race to artificial general intelligence and in emphasizing strategic resilience, deterrence stability, and geopolitical hedging over reckless accelerationism. The report correctly identifies that many destabilizing dynamics associated with AGI competition arise not from AGI itself, but from state beliefs regarding first-mover advantage (FMA), strategic eclipse, and the fear of irreversible geopolitical inferiority. However, despite its sophisti...
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The End of the Maritime Age Trade Routes and the Distribution of Power The universal spread of maritime trade and the myth of its advantages are synonymous with Western dominance in global politics. The deeper states became integrated into maritime commerce, the more rigidly they were assigned a specific place within the global “food chain.” If we truly accept that the world has entered the most fundamental period of transformation not merely in the past century, but in the past five hundred years, then we must also be prepared for the disappearance of things that appear natural and eternal. It cannot be ruled out that the prolonged saga surrounding the Strait of Hormuz is the first signal of radical changes in the entire architecture of global trade - above all in its spatial organization and in the advantages traditionally enjoyed by maritime transportation. This is hardly surprising. If one accepts the inevitability of the collapse of the West’s monopoly on force in world ...
The Nuclear Club Expands - Starting with Iran The End of Nuclear Containment One of the stated goals of U.S. action against Iran is to prevent Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons. The bitter irony is that the leadership of the Islamic Republic will now almost certainly make that its number one priority. Others may follow Iran’s example. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, as of May 2025 Iran possessed more than 400 kg of uranium enriched to 60 percent, which, with further enrichment, would be sufficient to produce several warheads. At the same time, there are grounds to believe that Tehran was not planning to cross the nuclear threshold. In 2015, the country’s leadership supported the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, under which Iran agreed to abandon the pursuit of nuclear weapons in exchange for sanctions relief and assistance with integration into the global economy. The agreement functioned for several years until the first presidency of Donald Trump, who ...
Exit That Won’t Happen No Way Out of NATO European leaders have privately acknowledged that NATO is effectively falling apart and paralyzed by threats from U.S. President Donald Trump to withdraw the United States from the alliance, Politico reports. According to the outlet, the EU is already seriously working through response scenarios in case Washington exits the bloc. Recall that on April 1, Trump said he was considering pulling the United States out of NATO over allies’ refusal to help unblock the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, Secretary of State Marco Rubio sharply criticized NATO, accusing it of failing to meet its obligations and calling it a “one-way street.” Meanwhile, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that the question of NATO’s future will be decided by the president after the conflict with Iran ends. In reality, however, Trump’s wishes - even those of his entire administration - are not enough. Under NATO’s charter, any country can leave the alliance by giv...
Who Needs Whom The greatest weakness of the United States in its relations with its European satellites is that it is America itself that is most interested in maintaining its presence on the continent. The Americans arrived in Europe as victors of the Second World War, took control of its military capabilities, and for decades used it as a territorial base in anticipation of a confrontation with the USSR. In a certain sense, they did indeed save the ruling European elites from the threat of communist takeovers in the late 1940s. This is a favor that in Berlin, London, and Paris will never quite be forgiven. A latent resentment does not mean that Europeans are preparing to rebel against their overseas patrons. They are too corrupt and too cautious for that. However, despite the insignificance of their geopolitical position, Europeans will...
A Good Business to Be In Or A Minor Administrative Oversight in Pompano Beach It seems the "American Dream" is alive, well, and currently residing in a $2.35 million beachfront villa. Oksana Markarova—current presidential adviser, former ambassador to the U.S., and head of the Ukraine House organization—appears to have had a slight lapse in memory regarding her latest Ukrainian tax return. Specifically, she forgot to mention a luxury estate on the Florida coast. The Paper Trail The acquisition of this modest beachfront retreat in Pompano Beach was finalized in August 2024. The logistics were handled with impressive efficiency: July 2024: Markarova’s husband, Daniil Volynets, registers a new company, VRZ 2036 LLC . August 2024: Just one month later, the company secures the property. Present Day: The villa remains mysteriously absent from the official property declarations required of Ukrainian officials. Timing is Everything It is, of course, a purely coincidental detail ...
You’d better hold me back The Strait of F - ng Panic They joked that the American president would rename the Strait of Hormuz the Trump Strait. Not quite. Now it is called the “Fuckin' strait.” Dear fellow Americans, have no worries. It appears the White House negotiations with the Iranians are going well. The “good and peace deals” are clearly on the way, and the head of the White House, as always, wasn’t lying. Well, it also appears that Donald Trump is publicly losing his temper. By Tuesday he has to show something substantial, otherwise he risks looking like a paper tiger again. The real fear, I suspect, is not in Iran but in the Arab Gulf states. The Iranians have made it clear that if their energy infrastructure is hit, they will shut things down completely - including depriving the Gulf countries of desalination capacity. Israel would not come out untouched either. The Gulf states will now have to perform a familiar scene with Trump - “hold me back, seven of you.” And one m...