THINK TWICE, STAN

Napoleon’s Lesson, Washington’s Practice Sanctioning the Enemy While Funding Him: A Familiar Strategy The United States’ decision to partially lift sanctions on Iranian oil while engaged in open conflict with Tehran recreates a situation that Napoleon Bonaparte encountered more than two centuries ago in his attempts to economically strangle Britain. Even against the backdrop of the broader disarray into which Washington has managed to plunge its own campaign against Iran in just a few weeks, this move stands out as particularly curious. Some observers rushed to describe it as an unprecedented case: enabling an adversary to earn freely while military operations against it are ongoing. In reality, this is less innovation than repetition. The difference is scale. Today’s global market is far more expansive and interconnected, and it has become a decisive constraint on the conduct of war. It forces states to adjust their strategies in ways that would have been unthinkable in earlier er...

The Burden of Being Believed Hormuz and the Price of Expectations The third week of the ongoing US and Israeli aggression against Iran has already turned into one of the most consequential events in international politics of this decade. The broader political consequences of this tragedy - the serious discrediting of international law by a permanent member of the UN Security Council, a new split between the United States and Europe, and the destabilization of the entire Middle East - remain of interest mostly to professional observers. What affects everyone, and already produces the strongest global impact, is the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. This is one of the most critical arteries for global oil trade. Prices for this key commodity had already begun moving upward due to the war in the region. The risk that any tanker may be struck by an Iranian drone is now pushing hydrocarbon prices even higher. Leading international o...

Natural Causes A Timely and Convenient Little War The United States wants to fight China no more than it wanted to fight Russia. Even less, in fact. With Russia it was possible to wage a proxy war while shielding itself behind Ukrainian proxies. Supporting allies in the Pacific in the event of a military clash with China would be a different matter entirely. Even supplying weapons, military equipment, and ammunition without direct confrontation between the American and Chinese fleets would be nearly impossible. For that reason, Washington places its bet on economic pressure. The key condition for success in such a strategy is the isolation of China from sources of raw materials and from markets for its exports. In other words, the interception of trade routes. Naturally, Chinese commercial arteries must be cut in such a way that Beijing cannot directly accuse the United States. To repeat: the United States does not want to fight China. Trade routes therefore must be interrupted f...

  The Luxury of Geography Iran’s Vulnerability - America’s Indifference Iran’s geopolitical position has always been profoundly vulnerable. That fact has shaped its political culture - a culture of flexibility in tactics and remarkable endurance over centuries. International politics is the arena where geography and culture intersect. Geography defines the broad contours of strategy. It determines what a state must fear, what it can ignore, and what it must control. From this premise emerges geopolitics as a school of thought. Second only to geography in shaping foreign policy is culture in its broadest sense - the system of beliefs and practices through which societies define the limits of the possible and create the symbols through which they communicate with others. In the war launched on February 28, 2026 by the United States and Israel against Iran, we observe a clear illustration of this interaction. Each of the principal actors behaves in accordance with its own un...

  The patient is more dead than alive Four years into the war, the World Bank’s joint Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment - RDNA5 - delivers what in medical language would be called an updated chart. The diagnosis is not ambiguous. The reconstruction bill now stands at almost 588 billion dollars over the next decade. Nearly three times Ukraine’s projected nominal GDP for 2025. In other words, the cost of rebuilding the body is roughly triple the body’s annual economic pulse. This is not a metaphorical inconvenience. It is a structural condition. Direct damage has already reached more than 195 billion dollars, up from 176 billion a year earlier. The trend line is clear. The patient continues to bleed while the surgeons hold press conferences about resilience. Housing, transport, and energy remain the most affected sectors. Fourteen percent of the housing stock damaged or destroyed. Over three million households affected. Energy assets up another 21 percent in damage since the...

International Law? The elimination of Ali Khamenei in accordance with the same operational model used to liquidate the leaders of terrorist organizations belongs to an entirely different dimension of world politics. Even when compared with previous regime changes, including such brutal finales as the killing of Muammar Gaddafi or the execution of Saddam Hussein. Donald Trump has officially announced the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. It must be stated plainly that, in the context of such a message, the international situation moves onto a new and far more dangerous level. One may relate to the Islamic Republic of Iran, its political structure, its ideology and its ruling circles in any manner one chooses. Grounds for any attitude, including the most negative, are not difficult to find for those who wish to find them. Yet Ali Khamenei was the legitimate head of a state that is a member of the United Nations, recognized by nearly all, and a lawful participant in all forms ...