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The Art of Going Nowhere Abu Dhabi, the European Security Question, and the Diplomacy of Endless Negotiations Lao Tzu observed that the great Way is smooth, yet people prefer the side paths. Almost two and a half millennia later, the negotiations surrounding the Ukrainian conflict offer an interesting variation on this ancient observation. There are plenty of people walking, diplomatic activity is becoming increasingly energetic, and the number of participants wishing to join the procession continues to grow. The difficulty is that they are all heading toward rather different destinations. To some extent, the negotiating process has already acquired a life independent of its declared purpose. Meetings are organized, positions are synchronized, statements are issued, and new formats are proposed. Each participant has reasons to keep the machinery moving, even as the prospect of an actual settlement remains elusive. One suspects that the process has become so important partly becau...
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The Architecture of Exclusion Washington and Moscow Are Discussing Europe's Future. Brussels Has Other Ideas. Donald Trump has never been particularly modest in describing his diplomatic ambitions. His latest announcement promises a “great, beautiful deal” that would concern not merely Ukraine, but the whole of Europe. Given the current state of European affairs, the ambition is considerable. Whether the American president appreciates the full complexity of what he is proposing remains an interesting question, although his confidence in his ability to arrange things has rarely suffered from a shortage of supporting evidence. Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law and special envoy, has provided a more substantive explanation of the initiative. According to him, Washington seeks to develop practical mechanisms that account for the security interests of all parties, reduce the likelihood of future conflicts, and establish a more stable and predictable security environment. He id...
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The Progress Nobody Ordered When Silicon Valley’s Future Meets America’s Right to Say No The American midterm elections are being described as a “blue tsunami,” and the expression seems appropriate given the scale of the Democratic victory and the losses suffered by Republican candidates. Beneath the familiar electoral arithmetic, however, something considerably more interesting has taken place. For the first time, Americans have voted on a massive scale against the vision of the future being promoted by Silicon Valley, and the enormous financial resources of the technology industry proved remarkably ineffective in changing their minds. In political terms, the concept of progress championed by Elon Musk, Sam Altman, Peter Thiel, and their fellow architects of humanity’s technological destiny has suffered a crushing defeat. The American public has begun to question the assumption that every technological innovation automatically constitutes a public benefit, especially when its pr...
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Peace, Pending Approval The Harvest Cannot Wait A farmer planning next year’s harvest has a fairly modest list of requirements: fuel for the tractor, credit for seed, somewhere to store the crop, and a road along which to sell it. A family considering a return home has similarly practical concerns: a roof, electricity, a school, and some reason to believe that rebuilding a life is worth the effort. Eventually, every grand strategy has to find its way down to these questions. Martin Nissen, Germany’s agricultural attaché in Moscow from 2022 to 2025, approached the Ukrainian conflict with a title of unusual simplicity: Agriculture needs peace . According to Bild’ s account, his informal paper proposed placing contested territories under UN administration for five years, followed by referendums to determine their final status. The German Foreign Office explained that the initiative had been developed independently, without an official mandate. Boris Pistorius likewise described it as pri...
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Locked Out The European Art of Self-Isolation On October 27, Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre spent nearly ninety minutes on the telephone with Vladimir Putin. The details remain largely outside the public domain, which is an entirely respectable arrangement for a diplomatic conversation. Its occurrence is significant enough. In my assessment, the call delivered the second substantial blow, following the Russian-American diesel agreement, to the foreign-policy doctrine through which the collective West had approached Russia. A government supposedly destined for diplomatic isolation was once again receiving calls from people who had discovered something they needed from it. Until recently, leaders on both sides of the Atlantic spoke enthusiastically about forcing Moscow to capitulate. Their support for the Kiev regime continued through attacks on nuclear facilities, Belgorod, and other civilian targets. Meanwhile, Russian gold and foreign-c...
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The Orders Keep Coming Washington’s Quarrels with Kiev and the Business of War The argument between Washington and Kiev continues. So do deliveries of American weapons. Zelenskiy himself acknowledges that Patriot interceptor missiles are still arriving, although the average he cites for 2026 is twelve a month. He also describes the difficulty of obtaining additional missiles from countries whose own inventories are limited. Diplomatic relations may be deteriorating; the supply relationship remains operational. ( Ukrinform ) Twelve missiles a month is a meager allocation against the demands Ukraine describes. American production and stockpiles, however, have limits of their own. Even during the politically warmer Biden years, satisfying Ukrainian air-defense requirements required Washington to rearrange other customers’ place in the queue. In June 2024, Biden announced that countries awaiting American air-defense systems would have to wait while Ukraine received priority. Enthusiasm was...
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