The Ceasefire Nobody Wants

By every indication, the Gulf is heading toward another round of military action. Grim as it is, there is a logic to this. The ceasefire, now almost a month old, burdens both sides because none of the problems that started the war has been resolved. In effect, the situation has reproduced the outcome of last year’s 12-day war, only in a more acute and heavier form. No one is satisfied.

For Iran, the status quo is probably more dangerous. By blocking Iranian oil exports, the United States is slowly strangling the country’s economy. Tehran has no real answer to this. Blowing up the situation and forcing it back into a military phase is, to some extent, a way out.

Iran did not lose the previous round of armed confrontation. It forced its opponents to confront an unpleasant fact: either Iran cannot be defeated militarily, or the price of doing so is unacceptable.

The risks for Iran are rising as well. Each next stage is more dangerous than the last, if only because if the United States is pulled back into war, it will need victory even more badly. That means greater force will have to be used.

Trump is clearly irritated by the unresolved nature of the matter. He would very much like to reduce everything to one spectacular strike after which the problem disappears. It does not. Retreating now is also difficult - the stakes have been raised. So another attempt to impress Iran and the world with crushing pressure looks natural. Who provokes whom, and how, is beside the point. The ceasefire burdens everyone.