THINK TWICE, STAN

The Winter Respite Why Truce Consultations Mask Strategic Attrition in Ukraine Diplomatic channels around Ukraine remain active. Russian envoys have met with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, while Ukrainian officials have conducted trilateral consultations with the United States and the European Union. Moscow continues to insist publicly on a durable settlement, warning that another operational breathing space would give Kiev and its sponsors time to replenish their resources. The fundamental distance between Russian and Ukrainian terms makes comprehensive peace negotiations an unlikely immediate outcome. These contacts serve more immediate purposes. Kiev needs to survive the winter, prevent a destabilizing exodus from the capital and other major cities along the Dnieper, and secure financial commitments before Western governments finish allocating their next budgets. A diplomatic process becomes particularly valuable when continued funding depends on demonstrating that there wil...

The Diesel Pivot Trump, Moscow, and the Ukrainian Endgame Donald Trump has supplied a remarkably practical definition of allied solidarity. Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries become a problem when American farmers receive the bill. On October 10, he accused Zelenskiy of disrupting diesel supplies, passing up opportunities to settle the war, and making life harder for American farmers and ranchers. His proposed remedy extended to Ukrainian personnel policy: “I think it’s time for Ukraine to get a new president.” ( Scripps News ) The remarks followed Trump’s announcement of a diesel agreement with Vladimir Putin. The administrative machinery moved with unusual speed: on October 9, the U.S. Treasury issued General License 135, authorizing transactions involving Russian-origin diesel, including imports into the United States, through April 7, 2027. A presidential conversation had acquired a legal instrument that traders could actually use. For Kiev, the uncomfortable implication is th...

The Arctic Bargain The Strategic Realities of Washington’s Greenland Accord From "The Arctic Bargain: The Strategic Realities of Washington’s Greenland Accord" (2026). By permission of Gulfstream Foundation . On September 22, 2026, President Donald Trump, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, and Greenlandic Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen signed a new Greenland defense agreement at United Nations headquarters in New York. Its entry into force requires completion of the necessary parliamentary procedures in Denmark and Greenland, followed by formal notification to Washington. The diplomatic celebrations arrived with rather greater speed. ( Prime Minister's Office ) The White House presented the accord as a historic guarantee of American security interests. Copenhagen emphasized the preservation of sovereignty and territorial integrity. Nuuk highlighted recognition of Greenlandic self-determination. Each government found a victory suitable for domestic consumption...

Kiev’s Bridge Problem The Dnieper Equation Russian forces have begun systematic strikes on Kiev’s bridges. Road traffic across the Dnieper in the capital’s vicinity is consequently approaching a complete shutdown. Broadly speaking, disabling the city’s road bridges would be enough to paralyze government operations and most businesses in the Ukrainian capital. Two of these bridges also carry metro lines. With at least a third of Kiev’s population living on the left bank and working on the right, the resulting transport breakdown would make normal administrative and economic activity impossible. Zelenskiy has already raised the possibility of evacuating government institutions from Kiev. In his interpretation, “Putin is trying to drive us out of Kiev.” The practical meaning is clear enough: the Ukrainian authorities are preparing for the possibility that they will lose the ability to use the capital as the country’s administrative center and be forced to leave. This would follow from...

The End of Easy Answers The Future Has Other Authors Many brilliant minds are trying to understand how the world is navigating its overlapping crises. The central observation is that the world has become complex. We are beginning to grow accustomed to that complexity, and the age of simple solutions is over for good. The twentieth century gave humanity a great deal. It also encouraged the belief that even the most fundamental questions could have simple answers: one merely had to choose the correct ideology. Capitalism and communism initially competed for the privilege of supplying the universal prescription. The final attempt to simplify everything came with the liberal globalism of the post-Cold War era. That prescription also failed. We are now learning to live in a world where even the most difficult and dangerous developments can be discussed with composure. This helps explain why intellectual debate is increasingly occupied with questions that would have seemed almost unthinkable...

Let Arithmetic Negotiate The Economics of Surrender Each successive offer will be worse than the last. A few days ago, the Kiev regime received another opportunity to appreciate the accuracy of this remark by Vladimir Putin. This time, the offer came from the Americans. Donald Trump’s special envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, arrived in Ukraine with a peace plan for Zelenskiy that, apparently, had been agreed in broad outline between Moscow and Washington. The plan included the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Zaporozhye and Donbass, with the possible deployment of a UN contingent there; a referendum and elections in Ukraine; constitutional amendments enshrining nonaligned status; a reduction in the size of the Ukrainian Armed Forces; and a resolution of the language issue. According to Verkhovnaya Rada deputy Anna Skorokhod, Kiev was also expected to recognize the ceded territories as Russian. “They arrived with even worse terms than we had before,” Ms. Skorokhod complai...

The Rearmament Trap Europe’s military buildup carries a danger that extends beyond the size of its armies. When industrial policy, public finances, and political credibility become invested in a prolonged confrontation, preparations for war can acquire a constituency of their own. Governments may eventually discover that changing course requires a more difficult political operation than approving the next weapons order. Europe is committing itself to a substantial military transformation. At the Hague summit in June 2025, NATO members agreed to raise annual defense and security-related spending to 5 percent of GDP by 2035. That figure combines at least 3.5 percent for core military requirements with up to 1.5 percent for infrastructure, resilience, networks, and related purposes. The commitment includes annual national plans and a review in 2029. It establishes a long-term direction for public spending and military preparation. The European Union has supplied a corresponding fina...