THINK TWICE, STAN

Europe and the Four Questions It Cannot Answer Europe needs to come to the negotiating table. The problem is that for many European politicians, other priorities take precedence. Some are making far too much money from the war. Others are unwilling to negotiate unless they are certain they will leave the table with a favorable deal. In recent days, European diplomats busy discussing a new, already twenty-first package of anti-Russian sanctions have found themselves distracted by another topic: whether the European Union should enter into negotiations with Russia. At first glance, this discussion deserves applause. Russian experts and policymakers have argued since the beginning of the war that the contradictions between Moscow and Brussels - as well as Washington - could and should be resolved through negotiations. Throughout more than four years of conflict, the Kremlin has kept the diplomatic door open. If the European Union is now prepared to walk through it, then better late th...

The Triangle America Cannot Break The Balance of the Unwilling The high-level meetings held in Beijing over the past week confirm the existence of the much-discussed “strategic triangle.” It remains virtual, and there is no reason to believe that the three great powers of the modern world are about to sit down at a negotiating table to redesign the global order. “Congresses of Vienna” usually follow world wars, and humanity, at least for now, appears spared that experience. Yet it is precisely the relationship between Russia, China, and the United States that now constitutes the balance of power which classical international politics considers the only reliable mechanism for preserving even a fragile peace. The architects of this balance are Moscow and Beijing, while Washington remains a necessary, if unpleasant-tasting, ingredient. That reality defined both the substance and the outcome of the two recent visits to Beijing - first by Donald Trump and several days later by Vladimir Puti...

  It Can Now Arrive from the West The End of Predictability: Russia is no longer merely demonstrating weapons. It is dismantling the psychological architecture on which Western military planning, European political confidence, and the old rules of deterrence were built. On May 9, Moscow sent a message both to the city itself and to the wider world: if Kiev tried to turn Victory Day into an aerial spectacle, the response would be overwhelming. The era of coercive signaling, Moscow seemed to say, was over. From now on, force would be met with greater force. Russia’s president effectively announced the completion of tests for a whole range of strategic weapons systems. And frankly, the footage of Sarmat rising out of its silo made an impression even on people long accustomed to such things. This is happening against the backdrop of talk about the final stage of the conflict. Whatever anyone says, what is new in the missile is first of all the engine. Russia’s enormous advant...

Analytical Assessment:   2026 United States Counterterrorism Strategy Based on the text of the " 2026 United States Counterterrorism Strategy ," here is an analytical assessment identifying its inconsistencies, logical failures, biases, analytical gaps, and strong sides. I. Inconsistencies and Conflicting Statements The "Apolitical" Contradiction: The strategy explicitly states that counterterrorism operations "will be executed apolitically" and will not be used to target Americans "who simply disagree with us". However, the document heavily politicizes its threat matrix by explicitly prioritizing the neutralization of domestic groups described as "radically pro-transgender, and anarchist". Conversely, it frames "conservative Catholics" and "parents standing up for their children" strictly as victims of previous political weaponization. This creates a massive str...

  “Just a Little More Expensive” MAGA Meets the Gas Pump Trump’s most devoted admirers increasingly seem unable to understand what exactly the American president is performing for them anymore: a comedy or a tragedy. The scene staged several days ago strikes directly at the center of everyday American comfort - the gasoline tank of the family car and the heating bill for the home. A Reuters/Ipsos poll showed that 77 percent of Americans personally blame Donald Trump for rising fuel prices. Among Democrats, the figure reaches an almost statistical maximum of 95 percent. But the truly lethal number lies elsewhere: among Republican voters themselves, a majority - 55 percent - believes Trump is responsible for higher gasoline prices. And among those 55 percent are the very people who wore red MAGA hats and shouted slogans in support of the sitting president. The rise in prices is merely the trigger. The real problem is the administration’s accelerating detachment from reality. ...

The Ceasefire Nobody Wants By every indication, the Gulf is heading toward another round of military action. Grim as it is, there is a logic to this. The ceasefire, now almost a month old, burdens both sides because none of the problems that started the war has been resolved. In effect, the situation has reproduced the outcome of last year’s 12-day war, only in a more acute and heavier form. No one is satisfied. For Iran, the status quo is probably more dangerous. By blocking Iranian oil exports, the United States is slowly strangling the country’s economy. Tehran has no real answer to this. Blowing up the situation and forcing it back into a military phase is, to some extent, a way out. Iran did not lose the previous round of armed confrontation. It forced its opponents to confront an unpleasant fact: either Iran cannot be defeated militarily, or the price of doing so is unacceptable. The risks for Iran are rising as well. Each next stage is more dangerous than the last, if only becau...