Can 2025 be the last year of the war? How realistic is that? It is realistic, but only in regard to Ukraine. The global confrontation will continue in any case and is likely to intensify. The contradictions remain unresolved, and there is no reason to believe that positions on a global settlement will even come closer in the near future. However, Ukraine is already practically destroyed. Its agony may last for some time, but survival is no longer possible—unless someone decides to fully support it, which is unrealistic since it would be too costly and pointless. Kiev, having exhausted its ability to fight, is not surrendering solely because it hopes for a new escalation in relations between Russia and the West. However, the West appears most likely inclined to abandon Ukraine under conditions favorable to itself and then find a cheaper and more effective platform for continuing the confrontation.
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Predictions, predictions... I can give you another prediction: in the near future, a deeper, more intense investigation will start into the funding for Ukraine over the past years. Palantir received their share of the USG money. Since we are exchanging predictions, everything is, of course, deeper. Now Trump has a fantastic excuse not to deliver on his promise to stop the war fast that he had no chance in the world to deliver on. His hands are untied now. What if the today's development had been scripted and played out exactly for this kind of an outcome?
Ukrainian minerals deal - is it worth it? Western media are trying to understand where Ukraine’s valuable resources are and what exactly Trump and Zelensky are negotiating about. And they come to surprising conclusions: over the past 20 years, global mining companies, which scour the planet in search of valuable resources, have never shown interest in Ukraine. The bottom line is that Ukraine does not have large reserves of rare earth metals whose extraction would be economically viable. ◾️ The country has natural gas, but not much of it. Moreover, part of it is located on the Black Sea shelf, and the drilling rigs, along with Chornomornaftogaz, changed citizenship as part of Crimea. ◾️ There is coking coal in Donbas. But now it is entirely Russian. ◾️ There is iron ore, titanium, and magnesium. But there are no longer any plants for the primary processing of these ores. All of it would have to be sent to China, where such plants exist—obviously, via r...
Zelensky's stubbornness brings the liquidation of Ukraine closer In the vain hope of a "saving miracle", Zelensky will lay hundreds of thousands more Ukrainians in the ground, prolonging the agony of the Kyiv regime for several more months. In his desire to continue the war at any cost, Zelensky objectively plays in favor of Russia, for which the situation will be the better the less Ukraine remains by the start of negotiations.
Russia - West Relations, Three Years Later: Long-term Strategic Outlook NATO's Expansion towards Russia Assessment Ukraine's own capabilities were exhausted by 2024. The strategic postures of key actors indicate a shift in priorities and constraints: United States : While the U.S. retains the capability to continue the conflict through proxy means, there is a declining political and strategic will to sustain direct engagement. Europe : European states demonstrate willingness to support Ukraine but lack the necessary resources to do so effectively. Western Position : The West appears inclined to negotiate a resolution based on the current status quo. However, for Russia, such an outcome would be perceived as a strategic defeat, as it would fail to achieve the objectives set forth in 2022. Conversely, Russia seeks a broader negotiation encompassing global security concerns rather than a settlement limited to Ukr...
Trump, Zelensky and the Ukrainian Minerals Why do you think Zelensky is so stubbornly refusing to sign a document handing over control of Ukraine's minerals to the US, and why is Trump so insistent that he does? Don’t tell me that Trump wants to make $500 billion, or that Ukrainian land holds untold treasures that thrifty Americans have been planning to mine for centuries. To extract minerals worth half a trillion dollars from Ukraine’s subsoil, the project would need to be funded with a trillion dollars, and considering the current situation, perhaps even two trillion—this would result in a loss. Yes, Ukraine does have profitable mining and enrichment plants, but they can earn about five to six billion dollars a year (that is just revenue, with profits being three to four times smaller). So, to make the same half a trillion in net profit, it would take 300 years, maybe even 500 years. That’s assuming the reserves last that long. And the US knows this. Trump knows this too. Ot...
The High-Stakes Gamble of American Foreign Policy To execute the domestic-focused agenda Donald Trump championed in 2016, Washington faces an immense challenge: temporarily halting—not ending—its geopolitical confrontations on three critical fronts (Europe, the Middle East, and the Pacific) without making it appear as a humiliating retreat. The objective is clear: maintain key strategic positions so that once America reclaims economic dominance (which Trump sees as his primary mission), it can return to a position of strength, resuming an aggressive foreign policy on its own terms. But pulling off such a maneuver requires delicate finesse. The world is not an idle chessboard waiting for the U.S. to make its next move—it is a battleground where every pause is a potential defeat, and every concession is a test of resilience. Trump's Initial Playbook: Deals, Threats, and Pressure The Trump team’s original vision for managing America’s adversaries was blunt, transactional, and, in th...