Russia - West Relations, Three Years Later: Long-term Strategic Outlook

NATO's Expansion towards Russia

Assessment

Ukraine's own capabilities were exhausted by 2024. The strategic postures of key actors indicate a shift in priorities and constraints:

• United States: While the U.S. retains the capability to continue the conflict through proxy means, there is a declining political and strategic will to sustain direct engagement.
• Europe: European states demonstrate willingness to support Ukraine but lack the necessary resources to do so effectively.
• Western Position: The West appears inclined to negotiate a resolution based on the current status quo. However, for Russia, such an outcome would be perceived as a strategic defeat, as it would fail to achieve the objectives set forth in 2022.

Conversely, Russia seeks a broader negotiation encompassing global security concerns rather than a settlement limited to Ukraine. This presents a fundamental impasse:

• For Russia, an agreement confined to Ukraine would be inadequate, as it does not address the wider geopolitical issues that Moscow considers integral to its national security.
• For the West, a global settlement would constitute a strategic defeat, given that its original objective in supporting Ukraine was to avoid precisely such a negotiation.

Geopolitical Implications

The nature of potential negotiations hinges on the framing of the settlement:

• If Ukraine itself is the subject of the negotiation, then the West avoids an outright strategic defeat, as only Kiev suffers the consequences, while broader geopolitical competition with Moscow persists.
• If the negotiations extend to the restructuring of the global order, then the West would face a strategic setback, having fought to maintain its hegemony but ultimately conceding to its erosion.

Given these dynamics, achieving a stable and lasting peace will be exceptionally difficult. A renewed escalation in tensions between Russia and the West remains a plausible scenario.

Outlook and Strategic Considerations

Kiev’s reluctance to capitulate appears driven by the expectation that a future deterioration in relations between Russia and the West would reignite Western interest in supporting Ukraine as a primary theater for proxy confrontation. However, indications suggest that Western actors may be shifting toward disengagement—potentially abandoning Ukraine under terms favorable to their own interests—while seeking a more cost-effective and strategically advantageous arena for future confrontation.

This evolving landscape suggests that while the immediate trajectory may lean toward de-escalation, long-term geopolitical competition is likely to persist, with the potential for future conflicts emerging in alternative theaters.