Trump, Zelensky and the Ukrainian Minerals

Why do you think Zelensky is so stubbornly refusing to sign a document handing over control of Ukraine's minerals to the US, and why is Trump so insistent that he does?

Don’t tell me that Trump wants to make $500 billion, or that Ukrainian land holds untold treasures that thrifty Americans have been planning to mine for centuries. To extract minerals worth half a trillion dollars from Ukraine’s subsoil, the project would need to be funded with a trillion dollars, and considering the current situation, perhaps even two trillion—this would result in a loss. Yes, Ukraine does have profitable mining and enrichment plants, but they can earn about five to six billion dollars a year (that is just revenue, with profits being three to four times smaller). So, to make the same half a trillion in net profit, it would take 300 years, maybe even 500 years. That’s assuming the reserves last that long.

And the US knows this. Trump knows this too. Otherwise, American companies would have long since controlled all of Ukraine’s mineral extraction, just like they controlled what was once the profitable Ukrainian agricultural sector. It’s important to understand that the profits from Ukrainian minerals come from exports, and the US could block all of Ukraine's exports at any time. They always could. So, anyone wanting to profit from exporting minerals was, in any case, informally controlled by the US. Where the Americans showed interest, like in gas extraction, they already had joint ventures, just like in agriculture. Or do you think Ukrainian oligarchs, like Akhmetov, Pinchuk, and Kolomoisky, could have privatized Ukrainian mining and enrichment plants without the American companies, who they were fully dependent on, being able to stop them if they had wanted? In all other areas, they could, but not in this one?

So, there’s no real battle for trillions here. Zelensky is also not afraid of a “popular uprising” over the sale of the country’s natural resources. The land sacred to the Ukrainian “kulak” was sold when transnational corporations wanted to change the rules of the game, moving from long-term leases to full ownership. No one said a word: not the “patriots,” not the oligarchs, not the “common people.” So, will there be an uprising over some resources no one knows what to do with? There was no rebellion over the Ministry of Defense sending a million Ukrainian men to their deaths and moving towards women, but there will be over rare earth metals? As if every Ukrainian has been concerned with mining rare earth metals since childhood and knows what they are?

But Zelensky still isn’t signing, and Trump is practically threatening with an intervention to make him do so, scaring him with the CIA, and advising Zelensky to leave, saying the next person should sign it.

What’s this fight over nothing? When there was a similar uproar over European and Ukrainian “shale gas,” which was supposedly abundant and would supposedly bankrupt Gazprom, it was clear that geopolitical (an attempt to undermine Gazprom’s position in the European market using the shale bluff) and economic (raising the value of shares in struggling American shale companies, creating conditions under which shrewd owners could offload this burden for a good price) schemes were at play. But everyone knows that no one will invest in a broken, unregulated Ukraine. Even more so, no one will invest in extracting minerals that are simply too few, hard, and expensive to extract, and all “contracts for the transfer of mineral rights” could be contested, both because Zelensky has been declared illegitimate by Russia and because the contract is being signed under obvious pressure, which makes it void from the start.

So, what is all this circus about?

The thing is, once the agreement is signed, neither Zelensky, nor Ukraine, nor its minerals, nor its rare earth metals will interest Trump in the slightest. He will get exactly what he needs—a strong bargaining position in geopolitical negotiations with Russia.

Let me remind you that initially, Trump wanted to negotiate only about the Ukrainian situation, but Moscow insisted on talks about the full spectrum of Russian-American issues. The full spectrum of problems is Trump’s weak point. If negotiations go in this direction, Trump loses, because a global settlement means not only resolving Russian-American contradictions, but also Iranian, Chinese, and other issues that Trump is trying to resolve in his favor by buying Russia off with Ukraine.

Ukraine is Russia’s weak point. Given historical and political factors—native Russian lands, family ties, the Russian origins of the local population, and the lack of a clear position in Russian society on the format of post-Ukrainian settlement—Russia needs to have complete freedom of action in Ukraine to resolve, without external interference, who to punish and who to spare, what to annex, and what to possibly use for bargaining with Eastern Europeans. In short, outsiders are not needed here.

In this context, Trump gets a document from Zelensky that declares him the owner of Ukraine’s minerals. Note that so far, none of the leading countries in the world have recognized Crimea as Russian, while Zelensky, according to Kiev’s version, is still president of all of Ukraine as it was in 1991.

So, Russia needs certainty and freedom of action in Ukraine. Enter Trump, who can provide both. Stopping assistance to Kiev while negotiations drag on (without a ceasefire) will lead to the rapid collapse of Ukrainian statehood and the Russian army’s occupation of all of Ukraine. Russia will then be able to define the post-Ukrainian settlement on its own terms. If the US officially recognizes it, Moscow will face no more international problems. The Europeans will have to agree because they won’t be able to do anything, and moreover, Eastern European neighbors of Kiev can be bought off with small territorial concessions: after the US recognizes Russia’s right to control Ukrainian territory at its discretion, they will have no reason or desire to resist, defending the interests of a vanished Ukraine. They’ll either take what is offered and not resist, or the issue will be resolved without them (longer and with more problems, but without them).

Without the document on minerals, Trump has no grounds to claim any bonuses from the liquidation of Ukraine, but with it, he does. It’s like if you bought a condo and found out that someone theoretically might lay claim to it (or part of it). You are clearly told that you can hire a good (and therefore expensive) lawyer, go to court, and win the case. But it will take a lot of time, effort, nerves, and cost you several times more than if you just paid a settlement here and now. The same trick, but on the scale of Ukraine, is what Trump is trying to pull off.

In principle, this scenario could suit Russia. Of course, internet patriots will start shouting, “Why pay the enemy, who armed Ukraine against us and lost the war?” But even Peter the Great, who conquered the Baltic states, paid a settlement for peace and recognition of his conquests.

The question is what Trump will want in exchange for abandoning his “rights.” If it’s just a matter of material compensation, that’s a reasonable approach. But if he tries to extract concessions from Russia regarding its support of China and Iran, there’s no point in negotiating. In that case, he can fight for his “rights” as much as he wants. Russia will survive, though the costs may be high.

So, Zelensky is resisting because, the moment his signature appears on that document, neither he nor the Ukrainian regime will hold any further interest for the US. Moreover, Washington will be interested in the liquidation of Ukraine so it can begin bargaining with Russia.

In principle, Trump has no trump cards without the signed document, and even killing Zelensky would cost him more. But Zelensky’s nervous system has been almost destroyed over the years. That’s what Trump’s team is betting on. Zelensky will be intimidated, pressured, and discredited until he breaks and signs whatever is required. Once he signs, the US will leave him alone, or rather, leave him to deal with a pile of unsolvable personal problems.

If by some miracle Zelensky resists and doesn’t sign the required document under US pressure, it won’t change much for Ukraine. In the end, the US will be ready for any format of post-Ukrainian settlement. Washington will still push its interests and still try to extract maximum concessions from Russia. The US’s negotiating position will be weaker, but that’s not critical.

Therefore, Moscow is not worried about Ukrainian minerals: in any case, tough bargaining with the US is inevitable. Zelensky is just thrashing about like a fish on the ice. But his convulsions won’t help. He should have thought ahead.