Of Cynicism and Realism
To end the war in Ukraine one needs…
It may sound cynical to suggest that Trump is once
again giving Moscow time to narrow Kiev’s room for maneuver, both literally and
figuratively. And yet, perhaps it is not cynical at all.
No agreement on ending the conflict emerged from the five-hour meeting in the Kremlin, which is unsurprising. Russia never hid the fact that it would not concede on its core demand: Ukrainian forces must withdraw from the remaining sections of Donbass still under their control.
Kiev, for its part, continues to insist that a voluntary withdrawal is off the table. And most likely the U.S. administration cannot compel Ukraine to do so now, or ever. Which leaves the second option Moscow already outlined: the territory will be cleared by force.
Trump, anticipating this, publicly noted that he would not set deadlines for the Kremlin and could not predict whether a breakthrough would occur. This, incidentally, differs from his usual rhetoric in such cases. It may sound cynical to suggest that Trump is once again giving Moscow time to narrow Kiev’s space through military means. And yet, perhaps it is not cynical at all.
When it first became known that the emissaries were coming to Moscow, the expectation was that before any coordinated solution emerges another round would likely be required. Apparently we are now on the fifth. And while it continues, an intensive military campaign will also continue. Or, if one prefers, amid an intensive military campaign an active negotiating phase will continue - not a pause, but a parallel track - which was equally predictable. Moscow will not agree to suspend hostilities without clear parameters for a settlement. Washington remains committed to extracting such parameters.
Tellingly, the American delegation flew directly home without meeting Ukrainian or European representatives. On the one hand, this means there is nothing to present yet. On the other, it signals that Moscow and Washington intend to reach an understanding between themselves and do not wish to be distracted before that.
In practical terms, the Trump administration - as he has said since February - is indeed performing the function of a technical intermediary, speaking in turn with each of the actual parties to the conflict.
Europe is absent from this configuration altogether. Any involvement it might retain depends solely on Ukraine’s desire to use it for leverage. It is a strange outcome for the European Union, which made the Ukrainian issue the central axis of its entire policy only to find itself relegated to the role of an instrument.
A positive note: the chances have increased that one more turn of the military-political mechanism will be the last before the war stops.