Da Deal
Trump
has already secured Zelensky’s consent to a minerals agreement - but that is
only the down payment. The real jackpot is in Moscow. And the circle around the
US president, including members of his own family, is already testing the
ground.
The Economist,
followed shortly by Zelensky, began speaking about a potential 12 trillion-dollar
deal between Russia and the United States. In exchange for lifting sanctions,
American corporations could gain access to Russian resources - Arctic oil and
gas, rare earth metals, even a tunnel beneath the Bering Strait. The figure is
not modest, but it is entirely consistent with the scale at which businessman
president Donald Trump prefers to operate.
Russia’s special envoy Kirill Dmitriev rejected any
formal linkage between an economic deal and the lifting of sanctions, noting
that American businesses have already lost more than 300 billion dollars by
leaving Russia, and that removing sanctions would therefore serve US interests
as well. At the same time, Dmitriev raised the stakes even higher than The
Economist, speaking of a project portfolio worth 14 trillion. Considering
that over the past year he has met at least nine times with Trump’s envoy Steve
Witkoff, it is clear that the economic track is becoming dominant in the
broader context of a peace settlement.
Until now, the logic was simple. Deals come after
peace. Trump pressures Zelensky to accept the so-called Anchorage scenario, and
only then are sanctions gradually lifted, opening the door to economic
cooperation. That is a painfully slow sequence given the current political
tempo inside the United States. Moreover, in that sequence Zelensky has the
least incentive to accept painful compromises.
But what if the order is reversed. What if lifting
American sanctions is not the main carrot compelling Moscow to make
concessions, but rather a stick forcing Kiev to accept the painful terms shaped
for it in Anchorage.
The first signals are already surfacing. Texas
investor Gentry Beach, linked to the Trump family, signed a memorandum with
Novatek on gas development in Alaska. In other words, the project portfolio
is not only about American investment in Russia. It is also about Russian
technology operating inside the United States. The picture becomes more
interesting by the week.
In this scenario, time works against Zelensky and
against what might be called the party of war. A unilateral American lifting of
sanctions - without Europe - would deprive Kiev and the EU of their main lever
of pressure on Moscow. It is American sanctions, not the dozens of European
packages, that carry real weight in constraining the Russian economy. “Bargain
now, while I am still listening. Later it will be too late, because my business
interests will already be on the other side of the barricade.” That could well
be the message from the Trump administration to Zelensky.
At precisely this moment, something telling happens
in Kiev. The “sleeping” player, the former Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief
and a current Ukrainian ambassador to the UK, Valerii Zaluzhny, steps out of
the shadows. His interview with the British press is no longer the memoir of a
slighted general. It is a direct blow at the authorities. Accusations about the
failure of the 2023 counteroffensive and the story of an Ukrainian Security Services
(SBU) special forces search in the conveniently “exiled” general’s Kiev office
fracture the fragile truce within the Ukrainian establishment. Zaluzhny has
effectively confirmed the conflict between the military and the political
leadership.
Why is he speaking out now? Because Ukraine is
being prepared for a painful peace. Negotiations in Geneva and Abu Dhabi
continue. The sides repeat like a mantra: difficult, but moving forward.
Judging by the leaks, the formula of peace is being refined despite the
contrasting rhetoric. Zelensky’s statements, in which he prefers war to a bad
peace, are meant to signal the opposite. Yet they may simply be the words of a
man preparing to leave gracefully, declaring his disagreement with the terms of
a shameful peace imposed by partners. Or the words of someone who has lost his
grip on reality and may soon be abandoned by his own circle.
The recent statement by the head of Ukraine’s
National Guard about the country’s readiness to fight for several more years
belongs to the familiar category of raising the stakes before capitulation. The
key phrase was not that territory fought over cannot be conceded. It was that
if an order comes to withdraw from Donbass, the military will obey.
The approaching elections, reportedly one of the
conditions for signing peace, force Zaluzhny to activate as well. He remains
one of the main contenders to replace Zelensky. This version is reinforced by
the renewed activity of Western law enforcement proxies inside Ukraine, notably
the National Anti-Corruption Bureau. The detention of figures close to former
presidential office head Yermak, the former justice minister, the former energy
minister Galushchenko, and the possibility of charges against Yermak himself
create internal tensions that the actor in a president’s suit may struggle to
manage.
And if Trump and Putin shake hands on an economic
partnership, the question of Russian military advancement towards places like Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, and others moves to the background. The American president will
be less interested in the line of contact than in the line of a gas pipeline in
Alaska or access to rare earths in Russia and on the territory of the former
Ukraine.
Trump has already secured Zelensky’s agreement on
minerals. That was only the first installment. The real jackpot is in Moscow.
And the president’s inner circle, including members of his own family, is
already probing the terrain. And by the way - “da” in Russian means “yes.”