Kiev Raises the Stakes and Takes a Major Risk

By publicly revealing details of its special operation, the Ukrainian side is sending a clear signal: “There are more such UAV caches on Russian territory.” During tomorrow’s negotiations, the Ukrainian delegation will likely try to play this card.

Ukraine’s large-scale attack on civilian and military infrastructure on the eve of a new round of talks should be seen as an attempt to raise the stakes. While emotional reactions are dominating online commentaries, it’s important first to identify each side’s position and the potential forks in the road ahead.

The Signal.
By disclosing its special operation, Ukraine signals that additional UAV stockpiles are present inside Russia. This card is expected to be used in tomorrow’s talks in Istanbul. Ukraine is not abandoning the idea of an unconditional ceasefire—this operation will also be leveraged to promote such a regime.

The Risk.
In raising the stakes, Kiev risks not only a retaliatory strike but also further angering Trump, who has shown growing frustration with both sides throughout the past week. Should escalation spiral out of control, Trump may seize the moment to exit the process altogether, citing the sides’ inability to negotiate in good faith. This scenario would be a serious loss for Ukraine.

The Disruption Option.
Kie
v may have a backup plan: to derail the talks entirely.

• Option A: Create a negative media narrative around Russia to make negotiations more difficult.

• Option B: Use any potential retaliatory strike from Russia as justification for withdrawing from direct contact.

Russia’s Room to Maneuver.
Moscow currently has a wide range of response options—either symmetrical or asymmetrical, diplomatic or military. There is also time to formulate a response. But the inevitability of that response is not in doubt.