Trump’s Caution and Tehran’s Cards: 

Why the U.S. Still Holds Back - Or Not Really?

Contrary to widespread fears - and at times near-panic - sweeping across the globe, the United States has yet to enter the Israel-Iran conflict directly. It still can though.

Acting, as always, not in accordance with classic geopolitical doctrine but rather in the style of a televised drama, Donald Trump first stirred alarm, only to then announce with perfect innocence that he has no desire to go to war.

Yet despite the rhetoric, the U.S. has been quietly amassing enormous military power in the Middle East. The buildup continues, but the battlefield remains frozen. Why?

One possibility is that Tehran, unlike its adversaries, still hasn’t revealed its most dangerous cards. While Israel and the U.S. appear increasingly transparent in their strategies, Iran continues to keep both known and unknown options close to the chest - creating uncertainty that may prove pivotal.

Let’s begin with the basics: neither Tel Aviv nor Washington knows for certain what remains in Iran’s arsenal - or more importantly, what form it might take. Meanwhile, reports of Israel’s own military vulnerabilities are spreading rapidly. The Washington Post notes that Israel’s stockpile of costly missile interceptors is nearing exhaustion. Without rapid resupply from the U.S. or deeper American involvement, Israel’s missile defense systems may remain operational for only 10 to 12 more days - assuming Iran continues operating in the same manner and does not increase the intensity and the frequency of strikes.

Israeli financial outlet The Marker estimates that sustaining nightly missile defense operations costs Israel over $285 million. Meanwhile, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard continues introducing surprises, including the June 18 combat use of the Sejjil - an ultra-heavy, two-stage missile deployed for the first time. The missile was reportedly shot down over Iraq, but Tehran’s full capabilities remain unknown.

Amid the chaos of attacks and counterattacks, some quiet but crucial developments have escaped notice. The Telegraph reports that shortly after Israel’s initial strike, Iran began receiving shipments from China via Boeing 747 transport planes - aircraft frequently used to move military hardware. Flight data shows the planes departing China, crossing Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, and disappearing from radar as they approached Iran. All were reportedly en route to Luxembourg, yet none appeared over Europe.

Beijing will likely claim these flights carried humanitarian aid, but the secrecy suggests otherwise. Military cargo? Air defense systems? Missile units? We can only speculate. Washington surely knows more - and knows that China may be eager to test its weapons against U.S. and Israeli systems in a live conflict.

After all, China’s J-10C fighters recently outperformed French Rafales in a skirmish during the India-Pakistan crisis. The Pentagon knows any Taiwan conflict would be no less risky. That alone may be giving both Washington and Tel Aviv pause.

Then there’s the option Tehran hasn’t yet played: the Strait of Hormuz. Many experts expected Iran to mine or block the key oil chokepoint in the early hours of war. So far, they haven’t. There’s talk in Tehran of restricting tanker passage without prior approval, but no official decision yet.

Perhaps that move will come only if the U.S. enters the war. If so, it would be globally felt within hours. Over 20 million barrels of oil per day - more than 20% of the world’s supply - pass through the strait. Only Saudi Arabia and the UAE possess alternative pipelines, and even those can’t match Hormuz volumes.

Asia, not Europe, would be hit hardest. Seventy percent of those oil shipments go to China, India, Japan, and South Korea. And while many assume China would pressure Tehran to keep Hormuz open, that assumption may not hold. Beijing has diversified its energy supply, especially via Russia, and enjoys a robust trade surplus. India, China’s regional rival, would suffer most.

Meanwhile, Europe’s economy could collapse if oil hits $150–200 per barrel. And nobody knows what anti-ship systems Iran might use to target U.S. carrier groups approaching its coast. Even a damaged aircraft carrier would be a devastating blow; a sunken warship could be catastrophic.

All this likely explains Trump’s hesitation. More reasons may exist, but these alone are enough to cool the fever dreams of Washington’s warhawks. Or so we hope.

That said, knowing Trump's unpredictability and his style of decision-making, the whole thing can just as well turn in an opposite direction – at any given moment...