Russia's INF Moratorium: Three Reasons Moscow Is Now Taking the Gloves Off

 

The Russia-Ukraine conflict and growing tensions with NATO have officially claimed another victim of the post-Cold War era. On August 4, 2025, the Russian Foreign Ministry formally declared the death of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, a cornerstone of strategic stability that once banned a specific class of missiles.

 

The treaty's original purpose was straightforward: by eliminating intermediate-range missiles from their arsenals, the U.S. and the Soviet Union/Russia were left with only long-range missiles. This meant that any nuclear strike would involve a flight time of tens of minutes, not just minutes, allowing for enough time to mount a retaliatory strike. This "mutually assured destruction" principle was key, as it made a nuclear first-strike a suicidal act. It also reduced the risk of an accidental nuclear war, giving both sides time to verify a launch.

The INF Treaty also offered a layer of protection for Europe, which would have been ground zero for an intermediate-range missile attack.

Despite the fact that the U.S. officially withdrew from the treaty in 2019 under President Trump, Moscow had maintained a unilateral, voluntary moratorium on deploying such missiles. This was in place for years, even as the U.S. tested new intermediate-range missiles and prepared to potentially deploy them in Europe and East Asia.

"The Russian side made a direct appeal to declare a reciprocal moratorium on the deployment of weapon systems previously banned by the INF Treaty," the Russian Foreign Ministry’s statement read. "And to the U.S. allies in the Asia-Pacific region – to support our efforts to prevent an arms race of this kind in the region."

That appeal went unanswered, and the moratorium is now over. The Ministry concluded its statement by saying that "the Russian Federation no longer considers itself bound by the corresponding self-imposed restrictions."

So why now? The U.S.'s lack of interest in upholding the spirit of the INF Treaty was clear long ago, as was the treaty's obsolescence in the age of new intermediate-range weapons like long-range drones. Moscow's recent decision, however, appears to be driven by three main factors.

1. Russia Is Deploying Its Own New Missiles

The first reason is that Russia is now ready to deploy its own intermediate-range missiles. During a visit to Valaam, President Vladimir Putin announced that Russian forces have received the first serial-produced models of the new Oreshnik missile. Standing next to him, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko disclosed plans to deploy the Oreshnik in Belarus, a move that would place the missile directly on NATO's doorstep.

2. A Message to Trump

Second, Moscow needed to get U.S. President Donald Trump's attention. The White House has been "playing macho games," according to Russian analysts. Trump, who has so far failed to broker a deal on Ukraine, should have focused on creating the conditions for such a deal, by reining in Kiev, pressuring Europe, and reassuring Moscow of U.S. commitment to its obligations. Instead, he has threatened Russia with new sanctions while at the same time proposing to open talks on a new strategic arms reduction treaty (START). Moscow's message is clear: there can be no talk of nuclear stability without a resolution to the Ukrainian conflict, which is now seen by some as a direct threat to Russia’s own nuclear arsenal.

3. Europe Is Now an Equal Threat

Finally, the moratorium's end reflects Moscow's view that the European Union has now fully committed itself to a long-term military confrontation with Russia. The myth that Russian troops would inevitably march on Warsaw, Berlin, and Paris has become the basis for European strategic planning. Based on this, European nations are rearming, restarting their military-industrial complexes, and seriously discussing blockading the Black and Baltic seas.

In this new reality, Europe is no longer just an American vassal caught in the crossfire. It has become a full-fledged, independent adversary against which Russia’s missile and nuclear arsenals must be deployed. This includes not only the specialized Oreshnik missile - which is designed to hit fortified targets - but also other intermediate-range missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

If the U.S. ever decides to revive the INF Treaty, it must come to the negotiating table not alone, as with the START treaty, but with its European partners - including Britain, France, and Germany, which, despite not having nuclear weapons, possesses potent cruise missiles. Ideally, Japan and South Korea would also join, but that’s unlikely as long as China, which is unwilling to place limits on its own intermediate-range missiles, refuses to participate.

Any new agreement must also cover not just missiles but all flying delivery vehicles for intermediate-range payloads, including drone aircraft.

If these dangerous weapons are to be limited, they must be limited together, by everyone.