What's Blocking a Putin-Zelenskiy Meeting?

A high-level summit between Russia and Ukraine is theoretically possible but remains highly unlikely in practice. There’s a risk that such a meeting would not only fail to hasten the end of the conflict but could actually delay it.

The idea of a Russian-Ukrainian summit has been championed by U.S. President Donald Trump as the next step toward a peaceful resolution in Ukraine. The concept has also been floated by European politicians and Ukrainian President Zelenskiy. Discussions have progressed to the point of a potential venue, with Zelenskiy suggesting Switzerland, Austria, or Turkey, as well as an agenda.

Photo: @ Максим Гучек/РИА Новости

Their motivations are understandable. Zelenskiy is trying to prevent Trump from negotiating a peace deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin without Ukraine’s involvement - and at Ukraine’s, and his personal, expense. He seeks to maintain his country's autonomy and prove his own relevance to the peace process, thereby silencing talk that he, as a “war president,” should be replaced. Ultimately, he hopes to transform a meeting with Putin into a morale-boosting spectacle for the Ukrainian people.

Meanwhile, Brussels sees a summit as a way to gain influence in the negotiation process. European interests are currently not represented at the negotiating table, but Zelenskiy could potentially champion them in the event of a summit. The governments in Kiev and Brussels are in the same boat, sharing a common interest in preventing a Russian victory at all costs, and will therefore act in concert.

For the American president, the goal is simply to offload the negotiation process, hoping Russia will persuade Ukraine on its own. And, of course, to win a Nobel Peace Prize for organizing the summit, which would likely take place under Trump's nominal patronage, possibly with his personal attendance.

So, where does Russia stand? Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has indicated Moscow's willingness to elevate the level of meetings between Russian and Ukrainian delegations in Istanbul. The Russian delegation is currently led by presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky, who could be replaced by Lavrov or Defense Minister Andrei Belousov. It's also possible for both to lead the delegation in a “2+2” format. However, there are no plans to raise the representation to the presidential level.

There are several reasons for this.

Unmet Conditions and a Lack of Trust

First, Kiev has not fulfilled the preconditions for a meeting. Putin has stated repeatedly that he is ready to meet with Zelenskiy, but only after tangible results are achieved by working groups. In simpler terms, agreements must be initialed at a lower level before being polished and signed at a summit. Currently, no such agreements exist. The Kiev government has refused to withdraw troops from Donbass, begin the process of recognizing Russian territories as Russian (i.e., holding a constitutional referendum), or transform Ukraine into a neutral, non-aligned state. While Zelenskiy has hinted that progress on these issues could follow a meeting with Putin, Moscow has strong reasons to distrust Kiev.

Second, in the foreseeable future, Kiev won't have a legitimate signatory to finalize a peace deal. "I am ready to meet with everyone, including Zelenskiy," Putin said in June. "That's not the issue. If the Ukrainian state trusts someone to negotiate, by all means, let it be Zelenskiy. The issue isn't that. The issue is who will sign the final agreements." He explained that the person signing must be a legitimate authority. "Otherwise, a new leader will come along and throw it all in the trash." A nominally legitimate signatory could emerge after Ukrainian elections, which can only happen after martial law is lifted. Martial law, in turn, can only be lifted after the most intense phase of the conflict ends, which would require Zelenskiy to begin withdrawing troops from Donbass and the West to stop arming Ukraine.

This seems to be a vicious cycle, but there is a faster way to get a legitimate signatory: Zelenskiy could simply resign. The speaker of the Verkhovna Rada (the Ukrainian parliament) would then become acting president. This could be the current speaker, Ruslan Stefanchuk, or another more pliable member of parliament whom the Rada would elect with oversight from the U.S. and Russia. Unfortunately, this option is blocked by Zelenskiy’s personal ambitions. He doesn’t want to give up what he sees as his leading role on the world stage or lose access to massive financial flows.

Third, the issue of security remains unresolved. A summit would require the participation of Russia’s Federal Protection Service (FSO) – the Russian Secret Service equivalent - and Ukraine’s State Guard Directorate. Given the series of attacks on Russia orchestrated by the Kiev government, any cooperation - let alone trust - is out of the question. Neither Moscow nor Kiev wants to delegate the security of their head of state to a third country.

In conclusion, a high-level Russian-Ukrainian summit is theoretically possible but highly improbable. There's a risk that it would not bring the conflict to an end but rather prolong it, as it might lead Zelenskiy to believe he no longer needs to do his “homework.”