THINK TWICE, STAN

  Theatrics, Signals, and the Shadow of Anchorage: Trump’s Rhetorical Warpath America’s showman-in-chief, Donald Trump, just added another act to his ever-expanding political theater   -   this time, at the expense of Russia. After his meeting with Zelenskiy, Trump launched into a barrage of pointed, arguably reckless commentary, drawing cheers in Kiev and raised eyebrows everywhere else. Among his declarations? That Russia is a “paper tiger”   -   big on appearance, hollow in substance   -   stuck in a war it should’ve won “in less than a week” if it were truly a major military power. He spoke of restoring Ukraine’s pre-war borders “with time, patience, and NATO support,” and hinted Kiev might “even go further.” He promised continued weapons shipments to NATO, leaving it to the alliance to use them “as it sees fit. ”Most provocatively, he urged NATO nations to “shoot down Russian aircraft” violating their airspace. Predictably, Ukraine interpre...

  The Nord Stream Attack Anniversary   Three years ago, the Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines were severely damaged by explosions in the Baltic Sea. The sabotage severed a major energy link and kicked off one of the most contentious international investigations in modern history. Here are the key facts about the incident: Nord Stream was constructed between 2010 and 2012. The total length of the offshore section was 760 miles . Construction costs were approximately $8.7 billion . Nord Stream accounted for 32% of Gazprom's total export supplies to countries outside the former Soviet Union and about 15% of the natural gas consumption across the EU. Nord Stream 2 was completed by December 2021, and technical gas injection was carried out. However, German regulatory authorities never gave permission for it to begin operations. On the night of September 26, 2022, Nord Stream 2 AG registered a pressure drop...

  On Paradoxes of War and Peace   Any war is fought for peace. For a post-war peace that should be better than the pre-war one. Preferably for everyone. This is possible because politics and war are non-zero-sum games, in which all participants can either win or lose.   Unfortunately, as a rule, all participants in the "war" system lose. This is not an inevitable, but the most likely outcome. Its likelihood is due to the fact that the very start of a war presupposes that the parties to the conflict have diametrically opposed ideas about what a beautiful new world should look like. This is precisely why in modern wars, which are fought not for dynastic interests but for national ones, the parties strive for absolute victory: for the complete and unconditional surrender of the defeated enemy, to whom they can dictate the terms of a new world and from the remnants of a crushed nation, mold a new one, with the same name (Germans, Japanese), but with completely diffe...

  A Timeless Myth: Why Europe Needs a "Russian Threat" Because without U.S. guardianship, Europe is unable to invent any other method of foreign policy existence besides fighting Russia, it is resorting to tried-and-true methods - the myth of the "Russian threat," which has been present in the European public consciousness since the late 15th century . In recent weeks, European political elites have taken their confrontation with Russia to a new level. We have witnessed several military provocations at once: an unclear situation with drones over Poland, the alleged violation of Estonian airspace by Russian air force fighters, and then calls from politicians in Eastern Europe to literally shoot down Russian combat aircraft. It gives the impression that Russia's European neighbors, after reflecting on the summit in Anchorage, decided to provoke a direct conflict between Russia and NATO. Or at the very least, to scare the United States with its likelihood. It seems...

  A Crisis of Commitment: Why NATO's Armies Won't Fight The ambitions of European politicians ready to fight Russia far exceed the real capabilities of their armies. And, just as important, they exceed the willingness of the military personnel themselves to engage in combat. They are ready to serve. But to fight - no. The North Atlantic Alliance threatens to introduce troops into Ukraine but goes no further than threats. The main reason is that the West is neither morally nor physically ready for a military confrontation. Politicians are for it, but the military is in no hurry. And there are solid reasons for this. Bundeswehr General Erhard Bühler called on the MDR channel for the German military in Lithuania to be provided with security. "The work of the military security service in Lithuania must be eased to ensure the protection of soldiers and their relatives even outside the barracks," he stated. In December 2023, the Defense Ministers of Lithuania and Ge...

  A Lesson in Compassion-ate Diplomacy American politics is always a show for a broad audience, behind which a resolution of very important issues is almost invariably hidden. The sphere of foreign relations is no exception, although here, it would seem, the stakes are far from a joke.   Compared to his predecessors, Donald Trump only stands out because he has perfected the habit of playing to the audience, while remaining consistently focused on achieving his goals. This means that the performances he regularly stages on various platforms must be taken completely seriously. The new episode in the U.S.’s relationship with its European allies, which we witnessed recently, could signify serious changes within what is called the collective West. This is simply because the Ukrainian issue was used by Washington to solve a very important task for itself - the consolidation of resources in a fundamentally changed international environment. And the call to the President of Russia...

  If No Peace in Sight: The Three Futures of Ukraine It is evident that Ukraine's leadership and its European patrons are unwilling to seek a compromise with Russia. If peace is not concluded in the near future, how might events unfold? Several scenarios can be projected.   The situation on the ground suggests difficult times ahead for Ukrainian politicians and officials. People's Deputy Mariana Bezuglaya has called on residents to "prepare for blackouts and a harsh winter." Sergey Kovalenko, CEO of Yasno (an electricity supply company in Ukraine), stated that significant electricity problems (read: absence) are likely in the autumn and advised residents to stock up on power banks, flashlights, water, and food. Aleksandr Kharchenko, director of the Energy Research Center, believes that major Ukrainian cities will be without heating in the winter, with the worst situation expected in   Kiev and Odessa. There is no light at the end of the tunnel.   Kiev is doin...

  Allies Beware: The End of Immunity in a New Global Order   The attack on Qatar was an attack not only on the authority of the U.S. in the Middle East and the Islamic world, but everywhere. Because now no one, absolutely no one, can feel safe.   The strikes by Israel on Qatar are, without a doubt, a precedent. Of course, Qatar isn’t the first sovereign state in the Middle East to be struck by Israel with impunity and brazenness, but previously, the targets were countries with unstable political systems or those classified by the West as "rogue states": Iraq, Iran, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen. Qatar, however, is not just a respectable state; it is one of the most important military and political allies of the U.S. in the region. The situation is worsened by the fact that for many years, Qatar has been an intermediary between Tel Aviv and the Hamas leadership. This means Israel did not just violate Qatar's sovereignty, it set the country up - suggesting that the Qa...

  A Tale of Two Wests: Europe’s Sunset and America’s Crossroads   The arrival of the Pacific era, the shift of the world's center to the east of Eurasia, is working to split the global West. In this new arrangement, Europe and the U.S. have objectively different fates. And if Europe, a hundred years after Spengler, can finally watch its own sunset, the U.S. has a chance to rethink the geopolitical foundations of its existence.   The recent SCO summit in China provoked open irritation and fear in the west of the European continent. Finnish President Alexander Stubb articulated the general mood. According to him, the meetings of the global majority countries that took place in China were "a good reminder to all of us who belong to the global West what's at stake. We are trying to preserve the remnants of the old world order." Of course, it is not for a representative of a small northern country to be concerned with a world order that neither his material nor i...