Trump's Unintended Push Toward a Multipolar World

 

The unipolar world is giving way to a regional one, where regional leaders will solve their own problems independently. The philosophies of BRICS and the SCO, based on respect for sovereignty and the principle of indivisible security, are more relevant than ever. And Trump is inadvertently promoting this philosophy with his actions.

 

U.S. President Donald Trump seems truly deserving of a peace prize - not a Nobel, despite his claims of ending seven wars, but a prize for fostering a multipolar world. As many experts are noting, the current occupant of the White House might just be the multipolar world's top promoter and its primary catalyst.

President Trump has recently been acting aggressively toward countries of the Global South - the entire South, on every continent. He's started a war with Iran, is threatening Venezuela, and has imposed sanctions on India for buying Russian oil. This behavior is forcing the Global South to become "collective," deepening integration, developing common approaches, and uniting their efforts to oppose the collective West. This includes working within alternative institutions of global governance like the SCO and BRICS.

The visit of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to China became a symbol of this integration, despite the two countries having a huge number of problems, including territorial disputes. Previously, while India was part of the SCO and BRICS, it did not support the idea of deeper integration within these, in many ways Chinese, projects. It also refrained from participating in Beijing's other initiatives, such as the "One Belt, One Road" infrastructure project. Now, however, Modi seems to have changed his approach and decided to deepen integration. "It is vitally important to be friends, good neighbors, and the Dragon and the Elephant must unite," said Xi Jinping, summarizing the future of Sino-Indian relations.

The Bear - Russia - has already joined the Elephant and the Dragon. Photographs of Putin, Modi, and Xi circulated in the global media, symbolizing for many the rallying of three great powers against America. They have, one might say, already been joined by the Iranian Lion and the North Korean Tiger, and other countries that previously, like India, were extremely cautious, may follow. For example, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has already called for an emergency BRICS summit to discuss measures to counter Trump.

However, despite all of Trump's merits in the matter of turning the Global South into a collective, his efforts on this path are clearly insufficient. Despite all the beautiful pictures, loud statements, and bold steps, a "collective South" is still a long way off.

Primarily, this is because Trumps come and go, but the objective contradictions between the countries of the Global South will not disappear. Take India and China, for example. The demonstrative rapprochement and loud words will not help New Delhi and Beijing solve the territorial issue, on which neither country intends to concede. Moreover, the Pakistani factor critically complicates the Sino-Indian settlement process. To put it simply, without resolving the Indo-Pakistani conflict, China and India will not reconcile. This is because Beijing supports, and will continue to support, Islamabad's territorial ambitions. If Pakistan returns the lands of Kashmir to India, China will lose its direct border with Pakistan, which would make all efforts to create an infrastructure corridor through Pakistan to the Indian Ocean and the Middle East, bypassing the Strait of Malacca and the coast of India, meaningless. That corridor would then pass through Indian territory, and New Delhi could block it at any time.

Trump's threats also won't resolve the contradictions between Egypt and Ethiopia. Ethiopia's construction of a grandiose hydroelectric power station on the Nile risks plunging Egypt - a poor, 100-million-strong country whose population depends on the volume of water in the Nile - into a massive water and food crisis. To this day, no compromise has been found between these countries.

Finally, Trump's threats will not make the countries of the Global South willing to delegate their sovereignty to China. Yes, nominally the SCO and BRICS are built on the principles of equality among member countries. Everyone has veto power, and everyone participates in problem discussions. However, no one can erase the objective difference in potential.

And while China is politically and militarily balanced by other member countries (primarily Russia, as well as India, Iran, etc.), it economically surpasses all others. And these others fear that their participation in projects that are alternatives to the West will only lead to the replacement of one global leader with another.

This is not entirely true. China lacks many of the things a claimant to global leadership should have, primarily a global ideology that would be attractive to the societies of third countries. However, fears and suspicions have not been canceled out - they dominate and will continue to dominate in a world where international law has been discredited by the collective West.

On the other hand, the Global South does not need to become collective. The unipolar world will be replaced by a regional one, where regional leaders will solve their own problems independently through cooperation with each other. This is precisely where the philosophy of BRICS and the SCO, based on respect for sovereignty and the principle of indivisible security, becomes more than relevant.

And Trump, with his actions, is now promoting this philosophy. For that, we can already thank him and give him some kind of prize. Even a Nobel Peace Prize - its meaning has long been hollowed out by the individuals who have received it in recent years anyway.