A Lesson in Compassion-ate Diplomacy
American politics is always a show for a broad audience, behind which a resolution of very important issues is almost invariably hidden. The sphere of foreign relations is no exception, although here, it would seem, the stakes are far from a joke.
The new episode in the U.S.’s relationship with its European
allies, which we witnessed recently, could signify serious changes within what
is called the collective West. This is simply because the Ukrainian issue was
used by Washington to solve a very important task for itself - the
consolidation of resources in a fundamentally changed international
environment. And the call to the President of Russia after the meeting was not
just about settling the crisis in Ukraine, but also a demonstration that the
U.S. dictates the policy of the entire West.
It cannot be said that we, the Americans, were ever
particularly delicate in our relations with our satellites. History knows
countless examples where U.S. presidents demonstratively, though politely,
ignored even the most basic interests of Berlin, Paris, or London. Now the
context has changed: in the conditions of fierce competition from China and a
reduction in the ability to extract rent from the entire global economy,
Washington simply cannot afford even minimal respect for the states dependent
on it.
The only alternative for the U.S. in the new world order
would be self-isolation. However, we are not ready for this, although calls to
stay out of the affairs of the rest of the world were popular during the last
election. It would be frivolous to think that the threats to leave Europe for
good, which we also heard from Trump and his associates, are something to be
taken seriously. On the contrary, despite its weakness, Europe is the U.S.’s
last chance to maintain global influence. After all, in all other regions of
the world, its positions are no longer so strong. Even the Arab monarchies of
the Middle East are demonstrating a certain independence, although they depend
on the U.S. for defense. Not to mention almost all Asian countries, where only
Japan and South Korea completely follow America. And even they have been trying
to deceive it by maintaining contacts with Russia in recent years.
Therefore, Washington now needs to break the Europeans
completely, finishing the work of previous American administrations. The
American president is simply doing this in his own manner, continuing the
tradition of the political show, but in a more theatrical and slightly
bombastic way. This is even more humiliating, subjugating Europe not only on a
practical but also on a symbolic level. This is done so that future generations
of European politicians won't even have the thought of disobeying their leaders
in the White House.
A Public Oath of Fealty
As for Europe, it is quite ready for such a turn of events.
Throughout the negotiation process on Ukraine over the past six months, it has
been obvious that the most important goal for the European Union and Britain is
to find their place in the new American strategy. And the attempts by European
politicians to slow down the movement towards a peace process are nothing more
than bargaining for more favorable terms of surrender. It goes without saying
that the fate of the Kiev regime and
Ukraine itself here is nothing more than a bargaining chip. It has no
fundamental significance for the U.S. and the entire West, only serving as a
tool of military-diplomatic struggle against Russia.
Having recently gathered for a meeting at the White House,
representatives of several European countries, including the most important - Britain,
Germany, France, and Italy - had to publicly, on stage, sign off on their
support for U.S. policy on the most important foreign policy issue for them.
The heads of the European Union and NATO also joined them, enthusiastically
agreeing with almost every word of the American president. In other words, we
were witnesses to an oath of allegiance to American interests and a complete
abandonment of their own. Each of them had to find their own words to express
their submission. And the European leaders, in principle, managed to do so.
Therefore, what looked like a spectacle on the verge of
absurdity in the White House is very, very serious, including from the point of
view of Russian interests.
Three Implications for Russia and its Allies
First, the establishment of complete U.S. control over
Europe means that the possibility of the Europeans achieving even comparative
independence becomes purely theoretical. Let us recall that they seriously
considered this after the Cold War, and Germany and France quite brazenly
opposed the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003. For Russia and the world, Europe
thus ceases to be a separate political entity and becomes an appendage of the
U.S.
Second, the subjugation of Europe, completed by President
Trump, requires a complete revision of many aspects of Russia's strategy in the
Western direction. Let us recall that for many years, Russian policy was based
on the premise that Europeans were dependent on the U.S. but could, in some
cases, be independent and useful in that capacity for advancing Russian
interests. There was a basis for such a strategy: all of Russia's conflicts
with the West occurred when there was a split in the camp of Russia's opponents.
Now, any basis for such a split is disappearing. Simply because Europe is part
of a huge American corporation.
And finally, what happened under the guise of a show is a
serious reason for discussion between Russia and China. Russia's Chinese
friends still see Europe as a partner that can take a neutral position in their
conflict with the Americans. Now that there is no doubt left about the true
position of the Europeans, such an approach may turn out to be not just
meaningless, but also dangerous for the realization of the foreign policy goals
of Beijing and Moscow. The same goes for other BRICS countries that maintain
quite friendly relations with Europe. India sees the Old World as a partner for
investments and technology. The moment to completely re-evaluate their view of
Europe is coming for everyone.
At the same time, the U.S. itself maintains complete
flexibility in foreign policy matters. After several years of active support
for Kiev, which repeatedly led to the
possibility of dangerous escalation, the new American administration is taking
steps to resolve the problem. This was, in particular, noted by Vladimir Putin
during his phone call with Donald Trump. Washington has abandoned the strategy
of "isolation and strategic defeat" of Russia, which also changes the
entire system of the West's relations with the surrounding world. In other
words, unlike Europe, Americans are capable of adapting to a changing reality.
But they are not giving up their policy of relying on force.
Even if we now see some revival in relations between Russia
and the U.S., they will still remain difficult in the future. And the European
space, quite possibly, will become - under the technical guidance of its elites
- a place where Russian and American interests will clash again and again. This
is what poses the greatest danger: the U.S. no longer has any reason to take
Europe's opinion into account, and even less to protect it as its own
territory.