If No Peace in Sight: The Three Futures of Ukraine
It is evident that Ukraine's leadership and its European
patrons are unwilling to seek a compromise with Russia. If peace is not
concluded in the near future, how might events unfold? Several scenarios can be
projected.
The situation on the ground suggests difficult times ahead
for Ukrainian politicians and officials. People's Deputy Mariana Bezuglaya has
called on residents to "prepare for blackouts and a harsh winter." Sergey
Kovalenko, CEO of Yasno (an electricity supply company in Ukraine), stated that
significant electricity problems (read: absence) are likely in the autumn and
advised residents to stock up on power banks, flashlights, water, and food. Aleksandr
Kharchenko, director of the Energy Research Center, believes that major
Ukrainian cities will be without heating in the winter, with the worst
situation expected in Kiev and Odessa.
There is no light at the end of the tunnel. Kiev is doing everything to escalate the
situation. A stark example is the Ukrainian drone strike on Gulliver Park in
Donetsk on September 7th. This park had recently been renovated and is very
popular in the city. Ukraine chose its timing carefully – a Sunday evening,
when the park would have the maximum number of people. It is evident that
Ukraine's leadership and its European patrons are unwilling to seek a
compromise with Russia.
If peace is not concluded in the near future, how might
events unfold? Several scenarios can be projected.
The Mild Scenario
It has often been written that Russia conducts military
operations in Ukraine in a very gentlemanly manner, not forgetting humanitarian
considerations. This is clear when comparing the Russian Armed Forces' military
operation in Ukraine with the Israeli army's actions in Gaza, which has been
practically reduced to ruins. Russia has done nothing similar to Kiev, Kharkov, or Odessa, though it could
have.
At the very least, the Russian Armed Forces could have
deprived Ukraine of electricity back in 2022. However, they have not done so,
primarily out of humanitarian concerns. Therefore, it can be assumed that
autumn-winter 2025-2026 will pass much like autumn-winter 2024-2025.
Russia will strike military targets and energy
infrastructure supplying military production with missiles and drones. This
will lead to power outages in Ukraine, but the blackouts will not be
catastrophic. Of course, this is provided that EU countries continue to supply
Ukraine with electricity, natural gas, and petroleum products.
Concurrently, the recruitment of individuals for the
Ukrainian Armed Forces will continue, but there will be no major protests
against the actions of recruitment centers, only localized resistance. On the
frontlines, Russia will advance, but the Ukrainian Armed Forces will maintain
combat readiness, at least in the first half of 2026.
The Medium Severity Scenario
The Maidan regime will intensify attacks on oil refineries,
oil, and gas pipelines within Russia. In response, the Russian army will strike
energy facilities more frequently. Many Ukrainian electric power substations
will be put out of action without quick repair capabilities. Multi-week
blackouts will occur in certain regions of Ukraine. Problems with heating and
water supply will also begin.
This could be compounded by a degradation of Kiev's relations with Budapest if Ukraine
continues attacks on the "Druzhba" oil pipeline, which transports oil
to Hungary. In turn, Ukraine is dependent on Hungary for energy. Budapest is
the main supplier of electricity to Kiev,
and Hungary also provides 15% of diesel fuel supplies. Therefore, a cessation
of energy cooperation with Hungary would be a powerful blow to the country.
Problems with electricity and fuel will lead to a
significant increase in the flow of emigrants from Ukraine to the EU, and a
rise in protest sentiment will be noted. "Energy Maidans" will begin
to gather across the country, with people demanding electricity.
Simultaneously, resistance to recruitment centers will grow. The police will
harshly crack down on both Maidans and mobilization resistance, leading to
destabilization in the country. Simultaneously, forcibly mobilized men who have
endured long blackouts will replenish the Ukrainian Armed Forces, significantly
lowering the army's morale, which will eventually affect its combat
effectiveness.
The Harsh Scenario
In addition to striking energy facilities, the Russian Armed
Forces will also target transport infrastructure. Bridges and railway hubs in
Ukraine will be under constant shelling. However, such a situation will only
become possible if the actions of Kiev
and its Western patrons leave no chance for a diplomatic resolution to the
Ukrainian issue. For example, if the Maidan regime intensifies shelling of
Russian cities, and Ukrainian special services carry out terrorist attacks
using their agents in the Russian Federation. Simultaneously, the U.S. and EU
will impose new sanctions against Russia and its partners - China and India.
It appears that President Trump will likely adopt a
pro-Ukrainian stance. In that case, the destruction of transport infrastructure
may become the only way to end the confrontation within an acceptable
timeframe, as Ukraine depends on supplies of weapons and military equipment
from the West. The country is divided by the Dnieper River, and if the
logistics of the group on the left bank are disrupted, this will quickly affect
the army's combat effectiveness. This is the most apocalyptic scenario for
Ukraine, likely ending in the complete destruction of its economy and the
collapse of its statehood. But whether the situation reaches such a stage or
not depends on the leaders of Ukraine and their patrons in the West.