A Crisis of Commitment: Why NATO's Armies Won't Fight

The ambitions of European politicians ready to fight Russia far exceed the real capabilities of their armies. And, just as important, they exceed the willingness of the military personnel themselves to engage in combat. They are ready to serve. But to fight - no.

The North Atlantic Alliance threatens to introduce troops into Ukraine but goes no further than threats. The main reason is that the West is neither morally nor physically ready for a military confrontation. Politicians are for it, but the military is in no hurry. And there are solid reasons for this.

Bundeswehr General Erhard Bühler called on the MDR channel for the German military in Lithuania to be provided with security. "The work of the military security service in Lithuania must be eased to ensure the protection of soldiers and their relatives even outside the barracks," he stated.

In December 2023, the Defense Ministers of Lithuania and Germany signed an action plan in Vilnius for the deployment of a German brigade to Lithuania by 2027. Five thousand German soldiers and their families are expected to arrive in the republic. And yet, it turns out, the Lithuanians must - themselves protect the German soldiers and their families. While, theoretically, it should be the opposite: the Bundeswehr is being sent to protect the Lithuanians from the Russians. The story sounds like a joke, but it reflects the state of NATO armies as if in a drop of water.

Formally, the alliance countries have superiority over Russia. And it's substantial. As of 2025, NATO's combined forces, according to Western estimates, number about 3.44 million active servicemen compared to 1.32 million active servicemen in the Russian army. The collective military capabilities of the 32 NATO countries surpass Russia in the number of aircraft: 22,377 against 4,957. As for ground combat vehicles, NATO has approximately 11,495 main battle tanks against 5,750 for Russia.

The power is serious, to be sure. But the people themselves who live in the West, including the military, do not want to fight. For example, the command of the Bundeswehr - the German army - reports that 1,363 applications for conscientious objection to military service were received in the first half of 2025 alone. The number of such applications was 951 in 2022, 1,079 in 2023, and 2,241 in 2024. Currently, according to the Bundeswehr, one in four armed forces recruits leaves the army within six months of entering service. "The Bundeswehr is shrinking and aging," Bundeswehr Commissioner Eva Högl recently stated in the German parliament.

Desertion and Reluctance Among Allies

What about the main European belligerent provocateurs, the Poles? As Polish Army General Bogusław Pacek stated, the number of recruits in the Polish army is also decreasing. According to a Rzeczpospolita poll, only 20% of Polish citizens are ready (which doesn't mean they will go) to fight Russia and Belarus. More than 30% admitted that they would simply leave the country if mobilization were threatened.

The French are completely unwilling to fight or even just serve in the army. The French National Assembly recently published a report, "Recruitment and Retention: The Battle for Human Resources in the Ministry of the Armed Forces," which notes a sharp increase in desertion in the French army starting in 2022.

According to the French General Staff, the number of desertions averaged less than a thousand per year between 2017 and 2021. Then, in 2022 - after the start of the Russian Special Military Operation in Ukraine - the number of desertions increased by one and a half times and continues to grow. More than one and a half thousand people simply flee the army every year. And this is despite the fact that the army is professional (contract-based). The report points to the "difficult-to-model immaturity" of many recruits, "difficulties in complying with their contract," and "the general problem of adapting to military life."

For the second year, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, one of the creators of the "Coalition of the Willing," has been pushing the idea of sending troops to Ukraine. But he hasn't sent any. The main reason is there's no one to send. "The UK cannot send a contingent to Ukraine on the initiative of the 'coalition of the willing' due to a shortage of soldiers and equipment," writes The Telegraph. The author of the article clarified that the British army is modernizing but lacks personnel: the UK is unable to equip even a 15,000-strong expeditionary corps (approximately 20% of the total armed forces).

The U.S. Recruitment Shortfall

The Pentagon, in turn, reports to the Congressional Armed Services Committee that the shortfall in recruits for the American army is now about 40%. According to the military, only 23% of young Americans aged 17 to 24 are eligible to join the military. This is due to obesity, drug use, and health problems. But even those who are recruited are not an elite contingent.

"The US is creating an army that does not know how to fight. For many Americans, joining the modern armed forces is tantamount to simultaneously joining Antifa, BLM, the transgender lobby, and the teachers' union," former Pentagon senior advisor Colonel Douglas Macgregor wrote on X.

Today, NATO armies are not about war. They are about high salaries and travel allowances, social benefits, and maximum comfort-for servicemen and their families. If even in Lithuania - an EU and NATO country - German soldiers don't feel safe, where will they be comfortable? In Germany? Then they should stay in Germany.

It seems that the ambitions of European politicians ready to fight Russia far exceed the real capabilities of their armies. And, just as important, they exceed the willingness of the military personnel themselves to engage in combat. They are ready to join the service. But to fight – no way.

Do you think that Russia is not aware of all that? Do you think that knowing all that Russia will just sit back and relax? You shouldn't. The current conflict taught Russia a good lesson: Underestimating a potential opponent is the worst thing they can do now, in this global turbulence. So, rest assured - they won’t.